Written by The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners sent shock waves to the landscape of college football this week by sending signals that they are seeking to leave the Big 12 conference and join the SEC. They are coming on the heels of the landmark Supreme Court decision that allows collegiate athletes to monetize their celebrity, thus eliminating their amateur status. A “land rush” to claim a stake in the new landscape of college football has begun.
The history of American football has two distinct phases, separated by the introduction of televised games. College football dominated the first phase. The game itself originated on a college campus. Traditions we still enjoy today emerged. As the sport grew, teams organized into conferences. Many of the best rivalries date back to this period. Conferences competed against each other at the end of the season in Bowl Games. Wire services created polls to declare national champions.
Once television emerged, the sport changed. Audiences gravitated to football as the sport thrived under the new technology. The National Football League was able to seize on this opportunity. The NFL saw the commercial impact and took advantage of it. It created the Super Bowl and merged with the AFL, putting the wheels in motion to make today’s financial juggernaut. As the years went by, both the team owners and its players increased their earning potential as the league’s popularity soared.
The role of college football changed in the television era. It served two purposes. First, it carried on its traditions established earlier. Television brought more attention to college football as well and a tremendous amount of revenue. But more significantly, college football became the minor league system for the National Football League. Desiring the riches that came with professional football, players flocked to the college game to prepare themselves for the NFL draft.
As television money has increased, maintaining the traditions has been increasingly difficult. More and more is at stake each year, and this money creates a constant separation between the haves and the have nots. Conferences constantly realign to compete for television contracts. Crowing a national champion became harder, demanding the implementation of a playoff system. The more teams involved in the playoffs, the less meaningful the bowl games became.
Somehow, the college administrators were able to maintain the tradition of college football as an amateur sport until now. The doors are blown wide open with the court decision, and no one knows what will happen now. Welcome to the third phase. Let’s call it the “NIL Era.”
What is going to happen now? I see two options.
The first option involves letting the current situation play out, which will inevitably result in the SEC winning the haves vs. have not competition. As the best players will want to seek the best earning opportunity, they will want to play for the most exposure and revenue for the teams.
The SEC already has the highest television ratings and has more players moving on to the NFL. SEC dominance will accelerate as players transition from amateur to professional status. It only seems likely that players and schools will bang down the doors to maximize their opportunity to realize the most outstanding “name, image, and likeness” earning potential.
We see it already. Alabama coach Nick Saban says his sophomore quarterback Bryce Young is already approaching $1M in endorsement deals. “And it’s like, the guy hasn’t even played yet,” Saban said, according to The Athletic. “But that’s because of our brand.”
I congratulate Oklahoma and Texas for being proactive. They seem to see the writing on the wall. They have been through the transitions from the Big 8 and the Southwest conferences into the Big 12 Conference. They have watched the Big 12 diminish in stature as Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, and Texas A&M have fled for greener pastures in other conferences. To use the land rush metaphor, these teams have been “Sooners” while Texas and OU have been “Boomers,” waiting for the official start to make their move. Texas A&M is already pushing back. They picked the right conference to jump to and don’t want to let Texas in now.
The second option would be to blow up the conferences altogether and start over. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney hinted at this while voicing his displeasure with the proposed new 12-team playoff format. Swinney made headlines for claiming that there probably aren’t twelve teams good enough also said, “Maybe we should have a 40-team Premier League with a 12-team Playoff, and if you stink, you get relegated to the other level or something. I don’t know.”
I think that is an excellent idea. Officially separate the haves from the have nots and create a mechanism to migrate between them. The fans get to see the best players on the best teams play against each other and have a sound playoff system at the end of the year. The best teams and best players can maximize their exposure and earnings. The rest can move forward our valued traditions of rivalries, conferences, and bowl games.
Do I think it will happen? Not a chance. We saw what happened in Europe this spring when they tried to replace the Champions League. There will be too much resistance from the fans. The current system may be doomed, but it is our system.
Instead, we will sound the cannon and let the Boomers and the Sooners fight it out to stake out their claims in this rugged and unknown new territory of the NIL Era. Television and large institutions will give way to individuals and their followers, watching the competition in various ways. Teams from all over the country will be begging to join the SEC.
In a way, the dilemma in college football mirrors what our culture is facing today. The landscape is changing. Priorities are shifting. Technology is evolving. We cling to our traditions, but nothing seems to look like it did just a couple of years ago.
Welcome to the new land rush where we all are going to have to make a choice. Are you going to be a Boomer or a Sooner?