Written by Last week, Georgia beat Alabama 33-18 in the College Football Playoff championship game. It was a rematch of a game played a month ago, featuring teams from bordering states in the corner of the country who play in the same conference. Also, it was a showcase of how the game has changed. We root differently now.
Why was I watching, and what was the point of this game? I’m set in my ways and have a hard time getting excited about games involving teams I don’t care about. However, good stories can capture my attention. There were several of them in this game, all involving how money is changing how the games are played and how we engage with it as fans.
The game’s hero was Stetson Bennett, a rags-to-riches story of a walk-on who broke a chain of elite Bulldog quarterbacks who could not break Georgia’s championship drought that goes back to the days of Herschel Walker.
Riches is what the game brought to Bennett, immediately and long-term. By winning the championship, Bennett’s “NIL valuation” jumped from $89,000 to $360,000. The NCAA now allows players to market their name, image, and likeness.
Engagement and “relative social media strength” are the two top drivers for this valuation. Later in the week, Bennett worked a shift at Raising Cane’s, garnering countless clicks and videos.
Where there is a winner, there is a loser. Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams suffered a significant knee injury early in the game. John Metchie III, the other Crimson Tide standout receiver, had been injured in the SEC Conference championship game. Lacking a consistent target after Willams went out, Alabama’s offense sputtered.
Williams took a risk by playing in the post-season, justifiably as he was helping his team compete for a national championship. After the game, Williams announced his intention to enter the upcoming NFL draft. It is unclear how far he will fall due to the injury, but it will be interesting to find out.
Treylon Burks is another highly-touted receiver from an SEC school expected to be in this year’s draft. He and Williams were both in the second half of the first round on most mock drafts before Williams was injured. Burks opted out of participating with the Razorbacks in the Outback Bowl. It was their first New Year’s Day bowl in over ten years. Arkansas did not qualify for the SEC Championship game, so Burks rested while Williams risked his draft stock by playing two extra games.
What will Williams’ decision to play cost him? Nearly all of the top draft prospects “opted out” of their bowl games. This year, two of the top NFL rookies, Ja’Marr Chase and Micah Parsons, opted out of the 2020 season altogether when given a chance due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
It is only a matter of time until you see players opting out of the playoffs unless NIL deals incentivize them. It makes you wonder what the point of the bowl games and playoffs are. Why don’t we skip them and let the Associated Press voters crown the champions again?
That brings us to this year’s most crucial money story, online sports betting. It is quickly becoming the engine driving all of the sports that we watch. It is all about the numbers, and the numbers are growing.
A court ruling in 2018 cleared the way for states to legalize sports betting and authorize mobile betting apps to operate within their borders. Sports betting is booming now as over 30 states have passed laws allowing about a third of the population to bet legally from their home using their phone. Legal sports betting more than doubled in 2021, and 2022 will likely see an explosion.
An exchange trading fund created for online gaming companies is performing twice as well as the S&P 500, which has itself been setting records. Apps such as FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM are capitalizing. Goldman Sachs expects the industry to grow annually at a rate of 40%.
Why is it such a good investment? Here is where the numbers come in. The bookmakers use algorithms to establish odds that half the bettors bet one side and half the other. To win $10, you have to bet $11. If you do the math, it means that to break even, you have to win 52.4% of the time. It also means that the house will take in a nearly guaranteed 4.55% return.
Once presented with the math, the states are jumping at the opportunity to get involved. They get about half of the haul, and most are using the revenue to fund specific needs like schools and clean water projects.
I live in Texas, where sports betting is not legal yet. A boring 13-9 game through three quarters caused me to lose interest. The fourth quarter turned out to be worth staying up late for those who set wagers on the game.
Georgia took the lead with eight minutes left but missed a two-point conversion that would have given them a 3-point lead, matching the spread. Another score with three minutes left gave them the cover. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young threw an interception returned for a touchdown with one minute left, bringing the total score to 51 points. Alabama failed to score in the final minute. The over/under was 53.
In 1980, nobody followed Herschel Walker on Instagram or cared about his “NIL Value.” He didn’t think twice about whether he would play in a bowl game. And, no one knew what the Moneyline was. Like everything else, the game has changed since then. Things that were once taboo are now acceptable, and even legal in some places. Watching a game in 2022 with 1980 expectations is an exercise in frustration.
It’s still football, but now fans can have a rooting interest in any game. A river of money flows from the fans to the sportsbooks to the networks, schools, and players. We pay for it differently and care about the results for different reasons. And, we are cleaning up our rivers. It is all probably for the better if we can accept it.